Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 36.845427 39.948725 43.360340 47.422268 52.171500 57.606297 64.382479
2025-06-29 32.038789 36.013607 40.672391 46.643359 54.261722 63.914681 77.540382
2025-07-06 28.811895 33.061066 38.231324 45.163460 54.521424 67.240946 86.943703
2025-07-13 27.688072 32.413375 38.379160 46.754958 58.762857 76.428155 107.069094
2025-07-20 26.592041 31.631147 38.186233 47.750999 62.202001 85.070232 129.497719
2025-07-27 25.659399 30.942992 37.997242 48.651262 65.550745 94.270229 157.224736
2025-08-03 24.536714 29.892805 37.185275 48.495395 67.143457 100.775183 183.021599
2025-08-10 23.351547 28.665787 36.008293 47.629032 67.378079 104.758770 205.367121
2025-08-17 22.254245 27.488508 34.808196 46.589777 67.133530 107.702132 227.163317
2025-08-24 21.345698 26.521959 33.844403 45.824278 67.249814 111.421898 254.856708
2025-08-31 20.552336 25.674901 32.999001 45.165917 67.457481 115.400405 288.018283
2025-09-07 20.232918 25.486180 33.121371 46.111211 70.845980 127.919502 376.663043
2025-09-14 19.575552 24.799039 32.477656 45.762170 71.769674 135.038467 459.747034
2025-09-21 18.845272 23.974109 31.577098 44.896422 71.527603 139.062255 539.239817
2025-09-28 18.058345 23.030926 30.439661 43.517726 70.007689 138.965646 590.093749
2025-10-05 17.949818 23.090495 30.884067 45.010540 74.973993 160.939750 1040.968188
2025-10-12 17.728221 22.965595 31.019694 45.944226 78.880086 182.204298 2117.090166
2025-10-19 17.500588 22.818370 31.105659 46.787324 82.758206 206.604651 7785.678021
2025-10-26 17.104552 22.392906 30.703707 46.641404 84.133775 221.782029 309852.320112
2025-11-02 16.614102 21.802106 29.994997 45.829943 83.642925 228.074337 NaN
2025-11-09 16.122512 21.193741 29.231052 44.855684 82.587351 231.155904 NaN
2025-11-16 15.701235 20.683065 28.612959 44.137454 82.144625 237.603064 NaN
2025-11-23 15.318794 20.222079 28.061423 43.519331 81.903114 245.381599 NaN